All-Time Highs, TSMC Crushed It, and Iran Peace Now Decides If Tech Leads the Next 1,000 Points | MITT April 16, 2026
The VIX is back below 19, ES just punched through 7,000 for a record close, and TSMC's monster earnings prove AI demand isn't slowing. Here's how to position before the next rotation.
👋 Welcome Back, Traders
Two weeks ago the market was convinced World War III was starting. Today we're printing fresh all-time highs.
ES pushed through 7,000 this week and held it. NQ is back above 26,000. The S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,022.95 yesterday, and futures held steady overnight. That's the tape of a market rotating out of fear and back into selective strength.
The catalyst? Iran peace talks aren't dead. The two-week ceasefire bought time, and now we're getting headlines about resumed negotiations in Pakistan. Oil dropped back to ~$90 from panic highs above $100. Treasury yields settled around 4.27%. The VIX got crushed below 19.
And this morning, TSMC printed one of the best quarterly results in semiconductor history. TSM 0.00%↑ profits up 58.3% year-over-year, revenue up 35%, all driven by AI infrastructure demand that isn't slowing down. When the world's most important chipmaker says AI spending is accelerating, you pay attention.
JPMorgan already reported Monday, and beat estimates by 9%. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs are following suit. Big bank earnings are not falling apart. The consumer is not collapsing. And the semis just confirmed tech leadership isn't finished.
That shifts the market for this week, and the outlook into the upcoming weeks.
Last week was about surviving the oil unwind and betting on second-order beneficiaries. This week is about recognizing we're back in a momentum tape where quality growth gets rewarded and panic hedges get sold. But with uncertainty looming, caution is needed.
The cleanest advantage right now is identifying which names have room to run before the crowd figures out the fear premium is gone.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
📊 Last Week's Trade Performance Recap
Here's how the April 9th setups have performed.
Free Setups
JPM 0.00%↑ (JPMorgan Chase) — Working. Entry: $305–$308; stop: close below $301; targets: $318/$329. JPM reported earnings on April 14, beat by 9.19% with $5.94 EPS. The stock ran to $314.24 then pulled back to around $306. It's sitting right in the entry zone. JPM gave the earnings pop, pulled back, and is now consolidating. If it holds above $301, the setup remains intact.
FCX 0.00%↑ (Freeport-McMoRan) — Target 1 hit. Entry: $63.50–$65; stop: close below $61.50; targets: $69/$73.50. FCX is trading around $68 this morning, up from last week's levels. Copper is holding strength, the dollar softened, and FCX has earnings coming April 23. This is the cleanest open trade from the free April 9 setups.
Paid Setups
CEG 0.00%↑ (Constellation Energy) — Working, winning, and above entry. Entry: $286–$293; stop: close below $279; targets: $312/$335. CEG is trading around $295–$298, cleanly above the entry zone. The AI-power thesis remains intact, and the stock held its structure through the volatility. T1 at $312 is the next level to watch. No stop triggered, thesis holding.
SLB 0.00%↑ (Schlumberger) — Working, near entry. Entry: $51–$52.50; stop: close below $49.25; targets: $56/$60. SLB is sitting around $52, right in the entry zone. It hasn't broken down despite the oil pullback, which is exactly what you want from a "cleaner chart than the majors" thesis. Still active, holding above the stop.
AMD 0.00%↑ (Advanced Micro Devices) — Winner, T2 hit. Entry: $231–$235; stop: close below $226; targets: $247/$262. AMD is trading above $275. This one ran hard. CPI behaved, semis caught a bid, and TSMC's earnings today just added fuel. AMD blew through T1 at $247 and T2 at $262. If you followed the plan, you're sitting on a substantial gain. This is what high-beta momentum trades look like when macro cooperates. Another massive winner on AMD for the Market Insights & Trading Trends subscribers!
Net result from April 9: 1 big winner (AMD hit T2+), FCX a target 1 winner, and 3 working towards targets (JPM, CEG, SLB). No stops triggered this week. Every setup accounted for. That's the kind of week you want, 2 in guaranteed profit, 1 already well above entry and 2 still in the entry zone. Another winning, profitable week.
📚 Weekly Insight: How To Trade the All-Time High Breakout Without Becoming the Exit Liquidity
Most retail traders make the same mistake after markets break to new highs.
They see the breakout. They see the headlines.
They assume they missed it.
Then they either chase the move at the worst possible time, or they sit out and watch another 200 points evaporate to the upside. Neither response is the smart move.
Here's the framework for handling breakout weeks.
Rule 1: Breakouts resolve the prior range, they don't predict the next one.
When ES punched through 7,000, it resolved weeks of consolidation below that level. That's the market telling you the bias is higher. But that doesn't mean every ticker is a buy-at-any-price situation. The breakout creates momentum, not infinite runway. You still need an entry plan.
Rule 2: High-conviction leadership gets the cleanest follow-through.
After a breakout, the names that led into it usually get the cleanest continuation. That's semis right now. TSMC just printed record numbers. NVDA, AMD, AVGO, these names have fundamental backing for the move. The second-tier sympathy plays are where people get chopped up. Don't chase the thing your buddy mentioned that's "basically AI-adjacent."
Rule 3: Fear resets create opportunity windows, not permanent green lights.
The VIX collapsed from elevated levels to 18. That means the fear premium got sold. It doesn't mean vol is dead forever. ATH breakout weeks often get tested within 5–10 sessions. The best traders use the initial breakout to establish positions, then manage risk tightly if the retest comes.
Rule 4: Confirmation over anticipation.
The worst way to trade a breakout week is to anticipate every name's breakout before it happens. The best way is to let the market show you which names are actually confirming strength, then scale in after the proof shows up. Wait for the tape, don't predict the tape.
This week, semis are confirming with TSMC earnings. Financials are confirming with JPM/BAC beats. Quality growth is back in favor.
The key takeaway: After a breakout to all-time highs, the edge is in leadership confirmation. Never blindly chase anything that hasn't moved yet.
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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups
VZ 0.00%↑ (Verizon)
Entry Zone: $45.50 – $46.50
Stop Loss: Close Below $44
Target 1: $49.00
Target 2: $51.50
Risk/Reward: ~1.5:1 to T1
Most traders look at Verizon and see a boring telecom with a slow chart. What they're missing is that VZ just hit an RSI below 27 (one of the most oversold readings it's had in over a year) while trading at 46.27, well off its 52-week high of $51.68, and with an earnings date locked in for April 27. That's a hard catalyst sitting less than two weeks out. Analysts at Citigroup have a $55 target on the stock, Daiwa Capital upgraded it to Buy with a $58 price objective, and the consensus average target sits at 49.95. The setup here is simple: you're buying a deeply oversold, dividend-paying large-cap at support, with an earnings binary coming that could provide the exact snapback trigger. The risk is defined below the $44 zone, which has held multiple tests.
DVN 0.00%↑ (Devon Energy)
Entry Zone: $45.00 – $46.00
Stop Loss: Close Below $43.50
Target 1: $49.50
Target 2: $52.50
Risk/Reward: ~1.4:1 to T1
Oil is looking to find support near $87 and the tape in energy is waking up. Devon is one of the cleaner E&P setups in that environment. About 78% of analysts sitting at Buy or better and a consensus price target of 51.50. The stock has reclaimed its 50-day moving average, the Permian/Eagle Ford production mix provides direct crude price leverage, and the Q1 earnings call isn't until May 5th which means you have room to run without an earnings binary blindsiding you in the short term. This is a momentum continuation setup: oil holds above $90, DVN follows. The stop sits below the recent consolidation floor at $43.50, and both targets are near analyst fair value estimates.
You've Seen the Free Side, Here's What You're Missing…
The two setups above are real trades. Good ones. Complete ones.
But they aren't the best asymmetric opportunities I found this week.
The three paid setups below are where the edge gets sharper.
One is the highest conviction energy bet in this edition. Another is a smaller non-obvious pick with the most upside. The last one is the cleanest large-cap expression of the Iran negotiations continuing.
And here's the only math that matters.
One trade can cover the subscription.
Last week's FCX trade is pushing toward T1. AMD gave enough profits on one share to cover a few months of paid subscription. That's what professional risk/reward looks like, you don't need every trade to become a home run. You need clear asymmetry and actual discipline.
TSMC just crushed earnings.
Semis are leading.
The tape is at all-time highs.
This is not the week to be underprepared.
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