June 4, 2026 | NFP Is the Trigger. Are You Positioned?
ES at 7,600. NQ at 30,540. Five setups defined. The most important number for the next week of trading drops tomorrow, you should be prepared.
👋 Welcome Back, Traders
Let’s get straight to it. The previous issue’s thesis centered on claims as the pivot, and this week, we saw significant developments that have once again shifted the market’s focus.
The ES is currently trading around 7600, the NQ around 30570, the VIX is near 15.4, and WTI crude is around 92. This week’s major developments include the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate announcements on June 5th, which can significantly impact index positioning, rate expectations, and risk appetite.
The market has been reacting to these events, and we’ve seen notable moves in sector ETFs, with XLE, XLK, and XLF leading inflows, while XLRE, XLP, and XLU are experiencing outflows. The next major catalyst window opens up tomorrow, June 5th, with the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate releases. These events can shift the market’s direction, and you need to be prepared.
These events change the playbook, and we need to focus on the key support and resistance levels for the ES, NQ, and other major indices so we can be positioned accordingly. One trade can cover the subscription, but that only works if we are selective and tactical in our approach.
Let’s break down the key levels and catalysts, and get ready to trade!
📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap
Here’s how the May 28th setups from Claims Are the Pivot performed.
RTX 0.00%↑ (LONG) — Sitting toward the top of the entry zone $178+ | Entry: $177.61–$178.72 | Stop: $170.19 | T1: $206.29 | T2: $236.62 RTX pulled back but respected the upward trend, we are looking for a continued push to break and hold above $180. Keep your stops in place, consider moving them up to a close below $171.
FCX 0.00%↑ (LONG) — Paying and working @ $69.50+ | Entry: $61.81–$62.61 | Stop: $56.45 | T1: $72.58 | T2: $83.55 Entry on FCX in the exact entry zone was difficult, but any buy on Thursday, Friday, and even Monday after the last edition was published would be in profit today! A clean winner.
BA 0.00%↑ (LONG) — Working @ $218+ | Entry: $223.31–$225.49 | Stop: $208.76 | T1: $252.55 | T2: $282.32 BA gave entries as it pulled back all the way to the $209 range, but staying above our stop. Keeping stops in place, moving the stop up to $209.
LLY 0.00%↑ (LONG) — Working @ $1,127+ | Entry: $1,120.82–$1,130.54 | Stop: $941.37 | T1: $1,457.44 | T2: $1,817.03 LLY was a perfect setup as it pulled back from Friday until Wednesday, giving a great entry zone while staying above the stop zone. Now as it pushes into the next leg up you can hold until targets 1 and 2 are hit.
EOG 0.00%↑ (LONG) — Winner that’s still working @ $140+ | Entry: $132.18–$133.24 | Stop: $125.07 | T1: $146.46 | T2: $161.00 EOG was the best play from last week. Friday gave the perfect entry, and it’s been a series of green candles since then, hitting a high of $142.92!
Net result: 2 clear winners that are already in profit, 3 that are still working, 0 stopped. Every setup accounted for, a clean sweep of no losses from the last edition so far!
📚 Weekly Insight: How to Navigate a Market Dominated by Oil Prices
Here are the key rules to keep in mind when navigating this current market:
Choose the cleanest vehicle, not the loudest ticker: With various sector ETFs and individual stocks showing different levels of inflows and outflows, it’s essential to select the most appropriate vehicle for your trade.
Example: XLE (Energy) and XLK (Technology) have seen significant inflows, while XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities) have experienced outflows.
Focus on risk management: The current market conditions require a disciplined approach to risk management. This includes setting defined entries, close-based stops, target clusters, and catalyst windows.
Stay informed about upcoming catalysts: Economic events, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate announcements, can significantly impact the market. It’s crucial to stay informed about these events and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. Don’t get caught flat-footed in the markets!
By following these rules and staying focused on the key market drivers, you can navigate the current market conditions effectively and make informed trading decisions. Stay ready with Market Insights & Trading Trends, so you don’t have to get ready when the time comes.
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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups
COST 0.00%↑ (Costco)
Entry Zone: $953.15 – $960.89
Stop Loss: Close Below $901.56
Target 1: $1,056.85
Target 2: $1,162.41
Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1
Costco earns its spot because consumer resilience anchors with a membership renewal catalyst. The entry catches the trade at structure rather than chasing momentum. Invalidation is clean: a close below $901.56 and the thesis is gone. T1 at $1,056.85 maps to the prior resistance shelf, T2 at $1,162.41 to the momentum extension if the catalyst lands. This will be an entry you have to wait for, don’t chase!
VALE 0.00%↑ (Vale)
TradingView Chart
Entry Zone: $15 – $16
Stop Loss: Close Below $14.50
Target 1: $17.32
Target 2: $19.22
Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1
The setup on Vale is a play on the iron ore/copper torque from China stimulus. We want the entry zone, not strength above it. A daily close beneath $14.52 kills it. T1 ($17.32) takes profit at the obvious resistance; T2 ($19.22) is the asymmetric add if the move extends.
You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…
The free ideas this week, COST ($953.15–$960.89) and VALE ($15–$16), are real trades with defined risk. But they play the broader tape.
The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure rather than the most-mentioned name. One clean trade off the board covers the subscription. That’s the whole pitch, only upgrade after a few free winners if you prefer!
Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work.
Cancel anytime.
