May 14, 2026 | ES Holds 7,483, NQ Eyes 30,000 | NVDA, PLTR, META, MU & CCJ Trade Board
Retail Sales printed. Here's the full playbook, 5 high-conviction setups across 5 sectors, live ES/NQ levels, and everything you need to trade the week ahead into FOMC Minutes
Welcome Back, Traders
The ES is holding comfortably above the 7,483 bull/bear line. NQ is respecting the 29,480 structural support and pushing into the 29,500–29,700 resistance cluster. The VIX sits in the 17s, WTI crude is trading near the $ 100s, and the 10-year yield is easing toward 4.45%. This is a risk-on setup heading into a packed macro week ahead.
Last week’s thesis was centered on navigating the Trump-Xi Summit and positioning into NFP. This week brings Retail Sales MoM (May 14, 12:30 ET), FOMC Minutes (May 20), and Building Permits + Housing Starts (May 21, 12:30 ET), three fairly high-impact events that will define tape structure and rates expectations for the next two weeks.
That changes our playbook. As always, one trade can cover the subscription if you stay disciplined and let the targets come to you.
📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap
Here’s how the May 7, 2026 setups from ES and NQ Above the Line, NFP at 12:30 ET Friday are performing heading into this week.
Free Setups:
NVDA — Both targets crushed! 💰 Entry: $209.50–$211.50 | Stop: Close below $204.50 | T1: $218 | T2: $224. NVDA made new ATHs off the entry zone. Huge winner with target 2 hit on Wednesday!
AAOI — Mixed Results, counting as an L. Entry: $161.00–$167.50 | Stop: Close below $154.80 | T1: $180 | T2: $191. Volatile name, as flagged at entry; unfortunately, we closed below our stop on May 8th. Then, on Monday-Wednesday, we went and hit $230 plus. Counted as an L, but some subscribers got the win!
Paid Setups:
AMD — Another target 2 big win! 💰 Entry: $402–$406 | Stop: Close below $390 | T1: $420 | T2: $434. The entry zone was difficult to hit, but AMD cleanly moved above $450 on May 11th. Easy win that paid well.
SMCI — 🔄 Active, and Target 1 hit 💵 Entry: $31–$34 | Stop: Close below $27.50 | T1: $36 | T2: $40. High-beta AI infrastructure play tracking the breakout retest. Sized smaller as noted, but the asymmetry remains excellent. Take profits at the targets, still holding 70% for target 2!
TLT Short — 🔄 Active and paying!. Entry: $86.00–$86.50 | Stop: Close above $88.50 | T1: $84 | T2: $82. Downtrend intact. Lower highs, lower lows. Stop untouched as we near target 1.
Net result: 2 clean targets, 1 and 2 winners, 2 active setups, 1 stopped. Clean slate, very profitable week, congrats to those of you who banked with us!
Weekly Insight
The dominant market event this week was the Trump-Xi Summit, which triggered a sharp rally in ES and NQ on May 13 as trade-deal optimism reset risk appetite.
The next real test happened today at 12:30 ET, Retail Sales MoM. The consensus is 0.5% MoM (down from 1.6% prior), and the market is pricing in a muted response. A surprise above 0.8% would likely push ES and NQ higher, a sub-0.2% print could trigger a quick retest of the 7,375/28,750 bull/bear lines.
Key rules to apply to your trading frameworks in the next week.
Choose the cleanest vehicle, not the loudest ticker. In a high-noise market, focus on liquid instruments with defined risk/reward and close-based invalidation.
Define your entries and exits. With ES at 7,483 and NQ at 29,632, use close-based stops and target clusters to manage risk and maximize returns.
Monitor catalyst windows. We have Retail Sales (today), FOMC Minutes (May 20), and Housing Starts (May 21), all of which are high-impact events that can shift index positioning and rate expectations.
Focus on risk/reward. With VIX above 17, maintain a disciplined approach to position sizing and target-setting.
Stay accountable, acknowledge losing trades without defensiveness, and use them as an opportunity to refine your strategy.
FOMC Minutes on May 20 at 18:00 ET, which can shift the playbook for both indices and single-name setups. Be prepared before the meeting so you don’t get caught flat-footed.
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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups
NVDA 0.00%↑ (NVIDIA)
Entry Zone: $232.00 – $236.00
Stop Loss: Close Below $226.00
Target 1: $248.00
Target 2: $260.00
NVDA is leading this tape. The semiconductor complex is the strongest sector in the market right now, XLK just posted the largest 6-week rate of change in its history, and NVDA is the anchor. The entry zone catches the current price with a clean close-based stop at $226. That’s your invalidation level; if it closes below there, the thesis is done, and you’re out. T1 at $248 and T2 at $260 are defined by the prior resistance cluster and momentum extension. One AI infrastructure catalyst or earnings whisper accelerates the move. This is the highest-probability vehicle in the highest-momentum sector on the board.
PLTR 0.00%↑ (Palantir Technologies)
Entry Zone: $131.50 – $134.50
Stop Loss: Close Below $127.00
Target 1: $142.00
Target 2: $150.00
Palantir is up as of midday May 14, right inside the entry zone. Palantir is the cleanest AI/defense/government data play in the market right now. The government contract pipeline is expanding, the commercial segment is accelerating, and institutional positioning is building. A stop at $127 is below the prior consolidation base, giving you a clear line in the sand. T1 at $142 and T2 at $150 are defined by the prior ATH resistance cluster and momentum extension. This is the most accessible high-conviction name on the board this week; liquid, defined risk, and directly in the AI thesis without chasing a $200+ stock.
You’ve Seen the Free Side, Here’s What You’re Missing…
The free ideas we’ve shared pay out; last week’s NVDA hit both targets. But let’s be clear: the paid board is where the edge gets sharper.
One single trade can cover the subscription, and we’re not just talking about any trade. We’re talking about high-conviction setups with defined entries, close-based stops, and target clusters that account for macro catalysts and technical structure.
The difference between our free and paid ideas is simple: on the free side, you get a glimpse of what’s possible. On the paid side, you get the full playbook that helps you make informed decisions. So why wait?
Join us on the paid board and start trading with an advantage. The upcoming catalysts, including Retail Sales (today), FOMC Minutes, and Building Permits, are poised to shift the market, and we’re ready to capitalize on them.
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