February 26, 2026: NVDA Earnings Aftermath | 5 High-Conviction Setups After the Biggest Night in AI
How to trade NVDA post-earnings when the stock barely moves | AXON explosion, DRVN implosion, YOU breakout | ES 6,965 & NQ 25,298 are your lines in the sand | 3 paid setups + full futures roadmap
👋 Welcome Back, Traders
Last night, Nvidia dropped one of the most anticipated earnings reports in recent memory, and the reaction told you everything you need to know about where this market is right now.
Record revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year over year. Data center revenue of $62.3 billion, up 93%. EPS of $1.62, beating estimates by 10 cents. Q1 guidance of $78 billion, roughly $6 billion above what Wall Street expected. Jensen Huang called it "the agentic AI inflection point." By any measure, these are generational numbers.
And the stock still dropped lower.
That tells you something critical: this market has already priced in extraordinary. The new bar is not just great, it's great plus something nobody saw coming. We didn't get that last night on China exposure, questions, and concerns about the pace of buybacks relative to valuation.
Stocks are attempting to recover from February's rough patch, tech is leading again, and beneath the surface, setups are forming. I'm watching whether NVDA holds its post-earnings range and continues to build higher lows above $185, and whether the Nasdaq can clear and hold above the 25,298–25,370 zone on NQ, because if it can, the next leg higher in AI leaders, storage plays, and momentum names becomes much higher probability. If it fails, we get another chop week. One level. Two completely different playbooks.
That's where we're focused this week.
📊 Last Week's Trade Performance Recap
Here's how last week's five ideas finished… Wins, works in progress, and one that didn't trigger.
NVDA Long – Winner
We called the pullback entry toward $185 or below with a stop under $175 and targets at $195 and $200. NVDA never really gave a deep dip, hitting the high $185 range. Then, as expected, it climbed to $197 into earnings, which means anyone who got in at the lower end of the entry zone is sitting on a solid winner. With earnings now behind us and the beat confirmed, if price holds above $185 post-earnings, the trade remains valid, and the extended target of $210 is back in play. Just like every pre-earnings play, we closed out before the announcement to protect profits.
PANW Short – Active, Playing Out
We shorted the dead-cat bounce into the $155–$160 area with a stop above $167 and targets at $142 and $135. PANW has continued to fade from its bounce, sitting near $149, and has hit Target 1. If you're in, tighten your stop and let it continue to work.
GPN Long – In Play, Watching Closely
Entry was $78 or below with a stop under $72 and targets at $85 and $90. GPN pulled back slightly from its range-expansion day, giving the entry we wanted. As long as $72 holds, the setup remains intact and T1 remains the objective.WEN Long – Grinding, Patience Required
Entry in the $8 range, stop under $7, targets at $9 and $10. WEN has shown resilience near the entry zone. No real breakdown, which is what you want in a turnaround/yield play. This one takes time. Hold with your stop in place.WDC Long – Strong, Working Toward Targets
Entry below $285, stop under $265, targets at $305 and $325. WDC has continued to perform as one of the strongest AI infrastructure names in the market, and the thesis remains fully intact. If you're in, stay in. If you missed it, an entry around $275–$285 is still possible!
Overall, last week was another net-positive week, three setups working toward targets, two already in profit. Process held. Stops were defined. The plan worked.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
📚 Weekly Insight: What a "Muted Earnings Reaction" Is Really Telling You
NVIDIA just delivered the best revenue quarter in the history of the semiconductor industry. The stock barely moved, and actually pulled down during today’s session.
For traders who understand market structure, it's one of the most important data points of the month. Here's what a muted reaction to a massive beat actually means…
The stock is not "cheap" on the news. When price doesn't react violently to the upside on a blowout beat, it tells you that the market had already priced in a significant portion of the good news. This isn't bearish, it's neutral. It means the next catalyst needs to be new information, not confirmation of what everyone already believes.
It shifts your timeframe, not your direction. NVDA's long-term thesis is rooted in AI infrastructure demand, hyperscaler spend, and data center dominance that didn't change last night. What changed is the short-term trading window. Instead of a gap-and-go play, this becomes a "base and break" thesis. Let the stock digest, let the sellers who bought on earnings rumors take profits, and look for the next higher low to form as a real entry.
The names that move big on this backdrop are your best setups. When NVDA gets the biggest headline and barely moves, but AXON jumps 23% on the same day, or YOU (CLEAR Secure) surges 37%... that's the market telling you where institutional money is finding new conviction. Those are the setups worth taking a look at. Don’t trade the reaction; trade the structure that forms after the reaction settles.
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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups
TTD 0.00%↑ (The Trade Desk) — SHORT
Entry: $25 or above
Stop: Close Above $29
🎯 Target 1: $21
🎯 Target 2: $18
Down 66% in the last year, just guided Q1 EBITDA to $195M vs. $223M expected. Structurally broken chart with every bounce capped by heavy overhead resistance. Analyst price targets are being slashed across the board. The bounce to $25–$27 is the short entry with a tight, defined risk of $3–$5 vs. $5–$9 of reward.
YOU 0.00%↑ (CLEAR Secure)
Entry: $42–$46 on a consolidation after today's breakout
Stop: Close below $38
🎯 Target 1: $52–$55
🎯 Target 2: $60
CLEAR Secure (YOU) is the kind of setup this newsletter lives for. A legitimate business that got completely overlooked, then surged 37%+ intraday after reporting Q4 2025 results that showed revenue of $240.8 million, up nearly 17% year over year, with core CLEAR membership growing 32% to 38 million members. The 52-week range tells the full story: this stock has bounced between $21.67 and $42.29 for the last year, and it just punched through the top of that range. That kind of breakout from a year-long base doesn't fail quietly; it either holds and runs toward new highs or it fades back inside the range. Our job is to buy the first consolidation that holds above the breakout (roughly $42–$46) and let the trade work. Analyst consensus is a Buy with a $38.43 average target, which has now been blown through on today's move, meaning upgrades and price target raises are likely incoming, adding more institutional tailwind.
🔒 Want the Complete Playbook?
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Three additional high-conviction setups each week: including a short on a name that just saw accounting fraud surface in its financials (fresh breakdown, massive volume), and a high-probability under-$50 momentum play that barely anyone is talking about.
Full ES & NQ futures roadmap: multiple precise levels on both instruments, plus the exact tactical scenarios and how to trade them.
Real-time context, not hindsight: you get these levels and setups before the moves, not the morning after when everyone on Twitter is suddenly an expert.
Asymmetric opportunities, curated: I scan hundreds of charts so you don't have to. You get the best risk/reward setups with defined invalidation, so you can execute a plan instead of drowning in noise.
NVDA just printed the greatest quarter in semiconductor history. AXON surged 23%. YOU jumped 37%. The market is moving, and the traders who had a plan captured it. The ones who didn't are still watching.
One trade pays for the whole year. Our recent PYPL 0.00%↑ trade (tracked live on Collective2) made over $400. The math on this is simple…
